Global economy
Global Market Expansion Services Report 2011
Globalization is an irreversible trend. And so it should be – it drives international specialization and accelerates the efficient international division of labor. However, the rules of the game are changing constantly and companies have to regularly redefine their core competencies. Reliable outsourcing partners help companies do exactly that. They allow companies to focus on what they do best as they tap into new and changing markets.
Outsourcing is no longer what it once was. DKSH is a prime example of a new breed of company that focuses on the processes that require intense customer interaction, thereby taking outsourcing to new levels. At DKSH, this specialist support is called "market expansion services". Providers of market expansion services help their partners and manufacturers to grow in existing markets and enter new markets by gaining access to customers, setting up marketing, sales and distribution structures and thereby exploiting their full business potential.
Today, true growth potential is to be found in the emerging economies. The fast-growing middle classes in particular fuel this growth – which is why we made them a focal topic of this study. Companies seeking growth and new outlets, however, need to understand how those markets can be targeted. That expertise is the core competency of a market expansion services specialist. By delivering highly customized, end-to-end integrated services, market expansion services providers can generate new impetus for their clients by reshaping their business operations in a new and unique manner.
Market expansion services is a relatively young industry and its business models are only just emerging. It has therefore not yet received much attention in the specialist literature. DKSH, a leading market expansion services provider, and Roland Berger Strategy Consultants have therefore decided to team up to present the first comprehensive global report on the MES sector. This is the first publication in a series that we trust has the potential to become an industry standard.
Our report is based on extensive research and includes the findings from over 100 interviews with industry executives and thought leaders. The study is designed to help decision makers fully understand what market expansion services are all about, what the market potential for these services is, and how you can benefit from them.
http://www.rolandberger.com/media/publications/2011-11-28-rbsc-pub-Global_Market_Expansion_Services_Report.html
M&A activities in CEE/SEE in 2010 - Waiting for the next growth phase
For the fourth time in a row, Roland Berger is analyzing the
regional M&A activities in CEE/SEE.
M&A activities have been stagnating since 2007. In 2010, global M&A value recovered slightly with overall growth of 2.5%, reaching USD 1,894 billion in overall transaction value. There was a clear shift toward emerging markets within this period – while the M&A value decreased in Europe by 15% and in North America by 8%, it grew by 48% in the rest of the world.
http://www.rolandberger.com/media/studies/2011-09-15-rbsc-pub-M_and_A_activities_in_CEE_SEE_in_2010.html
EURECA project – Hellenic Recovery Fund
The Greek solvency crisis – in combination with speculative attacks on several euro zone countries – has placed a tremendous strain on fiscal and monetary policy in Europe.
It will not be possible to protect the integrity of the euro zone without austerity (substantial savings in the affected countries), solidarity (a willingness to share the burden) and creativity (understanding the workings of the capital market and playing the game by the corresponding rules).
The current conundrum for European policymakers does not seem to have a "mathematical solution space" – In real fiscal terms, it has so far only aggravated the problems for all concerned.
Yet we believe that resolving this conundrum is vital if the EU is to return to a pattern of ongoing economic integration and progress.
This document describes the foundation on which such a solution can be built.
http://www.rolandberger.com/media/publications/2011-09-27-rbsc-pub-EURECA_project.html
European Business in China: Asia-Pacific Headquarters Study
The Asia-Pacific Headquarters Study 2011, conducted by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China (European Chamber) in cooperation with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, examines the growing trend among multinational companies (MNCs) towards establishing regional headquarters in Asia Pacific. The gradual global economic shift towards the Asia-Pacific region has many MNCs placing an increasing strategic importance in this region, especially as regional GDP and consumer demand growth rates outperform those in other regions.
This study examines how European MNCs select the location of their Asia-Pacific regional headquarters in order to compare the perceived competitive advantages of various cities in the region. In consolidating the different experiences, the European Chamber seeks to provide a valuable resource for foreign MNCs looking to expand their presence in the region.
The study also provides the region's various governmental authorities with informed recommendations (e.g., to Shanghai's municipal government) and suggestions (e.g., to other city governments in Asia) that are mutually beneficial for these authorities and the international business community.
Roland_Berger_Asia_Pacific_Headquarters_study20110411
think: act - Rethinking growth
Dear readers, Growth is one of the main concerns of managers around the world. But, although many economists think we might have overcome the financial crisis by now, the “new normal” does not provide a sound basis for business plans:
Will we be facing inflation or will we have to fight deflation? Is the “real economy” on the rebound or will we see the “knowledge economy” rising again, soon? Are we threatened by an era of trade wars or will coordinated crisis management lead to stronger global cooperation?
We have made “Rethinking Growth” the main topic of this issue, presenting new concepts, an exclusive map of intellectual capital as a driving force behind growth, practical answers by successful entrepreneurs such as Ratan Tata and an essay of Martin Wittig, who explores how the DNA of an organizations defines its options to successfully implement new strategies e.g. for sustainable growth.
In addition, we cover topics such as:
• How China wants to lead the e-mobility revolution
• How companies can avoid crisis
• How Micro-Finance might change Africa
Three times three - scenario update
2011
In our scenarios for the past economic crisis, Roland Berger forecast a V-shaped recession early on, in other words a quick recovery in the world economy in 2010 (see think:act Content Scenario Update 2/2010). And that is exactly what happened. At the time, our experts were much more optimistic than many other pundits.
Three times three
The authors of the latest think:act CONTENT scenario update keep up this positive attitude. They propose an optimistic 3x3% scenario, countering the forecasters' 3-2-1 prediction. Following the actual growth of 3.6% in 2010, they expect at least 3% for 2011 and 2012 too. Quote: "We do not see why the German economy's upturn should slow down so much, as in the 3-2-1 forecast. … We believe in a sustainable, dynamic recovery."
Lessons of the past
Germany has proven many times that a 3x3 scenario is feasible. The country achieved this feat in 2000, 2006 and 2010. And the restructuring of the German economy in the years up to 2005, accompanied by wage restraint and major structural reforms, really boosted Germany's long-term competitiveness. The authors of the scenario update also point to the German business model which – with its strong focus on key and particularly value-adding, system-head functions – is now often viewed as a role model for other countries.
Market analyses
The latest think:act CONTENT shows that things look good for 2011 and 2012.
The authors analyze the factors that can guarantee sustainable growth in Germany: our most important export markets on the one hand, and the domestic market, on the other.
At the same time, they explore which factors could reverse the scenario.
Finally, they highlight actions the government could take to create ideal conditions for strong growth, even after 2011.
According to our Roland Berger experts, there are many reasons to believe in the German 3x3 scenario – provided the country approaches the remainder of 2011 with optimism and self-confidence.
And they conclude by quoting an American saying: Future is "the time when you regret that you didn't do what you could have done."
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2011-02-14-rbsc-pub-Dreimal_drei_Prozent.html
Davos 2011
Our CEO Dr. Martin C. Wittig shares his insights on the issues at the top of the World Economic Forum agenda in Davos.
－ What is your outlook for the global economy in 2011?
Global recovery has been underway for some time now. 2010 was a good year with global GDP growing by 4.8 percent. This was in line with the V-shape development that we at Roland Berger predicted in 2008.
For 2011, I expect global recovery to continue, as major regions settle into their growth paths. However, global growth in 2011 will be slightly slower than in 2010, mainly due to eroding recovery effects in advanced economies. Growth in the United States will slow by almost 1.5 percentage points – from 2.6 percent in 2010 to 1.2 percent in 2011. Slower consumer and business spending and a decline in government spending will drive this.
The original 15 EU member states will stay at a modest 1.5 percent growth in 2011, but this will vary widely by country. Germany, the Nordic countries and Benelux will perform at the higher end, above 2 percent. The United Kingdom and France will be in the middle range, 1.5-2 percent, due to budget cuts, slower domestic growth and less help from exports. Most of Southern Europe and Ireland will see growth of less than 1 percent, or they may even contract.
China's strong growth will taper off only slightly going into 2011 as its economy settles into a pattern of gradually slowing growth, assuming there are no major negative impacts from inflation or overvalued assets. As a result of the global crisis and very divergent growth rates, China may have a larger GDP (adjusted for differences in relative price levels using purchasing power parities) than the United States by 2012.
India will add almost a full percentage point to its 2010 growth rate in 2011, as its economy continues to benefit from accelerating domestic growth, a relatively strong currency and a non-expansionary macroeconomic policy.
So, on the whole I am still quite optimistic, although the recovery has been experiencing setbacks since the middle of 2010. Growth prospects remain quite uncertain because of the situation in Europe. Still, developing countries are expected to lead the recovery with growth rates of around 6 percent.
http://www.rolandberger.com/news/2011-01-12-rbsc-news-Davos_2011.html
What changed in 2010?... What's next in 2011?
Our think:act mini takes a look on what changed in 2010 and what´s coming up next in 2011. The magazine includes an essay on strategy by Martin C. Wittig. Other stories focus on the new Chinese management model as well as Green Business, and what strategic implications these developments have on corporate policies and strategies.
In our view, next year will mean redefining entrepreneurial strategies, paying close attention to megatrends and understanding revolutions.
In this think: act mini, Dr. Martin C. Wittig, CEO of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, discusses why a functioning strategy must always be based on a company's specific characteristics, or "DNA". The article on the Chinese management revolution picks up on this idea, explaining a kind of "cultural DNA".
China's business elite, as our experience working in China for over a quarter of a century suggests, are reflecting more and more on their own values and strengths. They are then combining them with the traditional management strategies they learned at Western business schools. But even the Chinese success model will reach its limits if it cannot grow sustainably. The restructuring of the global economy, as it moves away from climate-damaging resource exploitation toward sustainable, environmentally friendly production, is the megatrend of our time. Our consultants have analyzed the economic growth potential this development may provide.
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-12-09-rbsc-pub-What_changed_in_2010_Whats_next_in_2011.html
China will trigger the next management revolution 2010
The recent global economic crisis has called into question the way business is done. Governments and business leaders the world over are asking how they can make their economies and companies more sustainable and more resilient in the face of sudden and unexpected shocks, financial or otherwise. In the past they would have looked to the great business schools in the US for a lead. Now, eyes are turning elsewhere.
One possibility identified by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants is a management approach being developed in China that could prove influential throughout the world. It is still early days, but our experience working in China for over a quarter of a century suggests that this new approach is emerging from China's growing disenchantment with the American management model.
This issue of think: act CONTENT describes the main elements of the new Chinese management model to give you an idea about what is happening in China and at the same time provide you with food for thought about possible new solutions to your own problems.
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-12-03-rbsc-pub-China_will_trigger_next_management_revolution.html
Beyond cross-functional collaboration
This study analyzes how companies can go beyond "traditional", taskforce-based cross-functional collaboration. "Functions still dominate today's corporate structures, but that won't be enough to meet tomorrow's requirements," says Thomas Rinn, Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.
The reasons are manifold:
Increasing customer requirements, growing global competition and exhausted "functional" potentials – these demand that companies realize synergies through cross-functional integration.
Most companies rely on "traditional", taskforce-based cross-functional collaboration to overcome functional barriers, such as joint sourcing teams comprising purchasing, development and production.
However, this "traditional" approach towards cross-functional collaboration is often not successful. Based on over 20 interviews, Roland Berger attributes this outcome mainly to insufficient incentives, responsibles' fear of losing power and insufficient internal resources.
Therefore, companies need to adapt their management system to go beyond "traditional" cross-functional collaboration.
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-11-08-rbsc-pub-Beyond_cross_functional_collaboration.html
The Brazilian Decade - Time to act in a unique situation 2010
Brazil is already an economic heavyweight. For example, in exports of sugar, ethanol, soy and beef, Brazil is number one in the world. Brazil's potential is based on its unique strengths: a young, dynamic population; a service-oriented attitude; huge, partially unexploited offshore oil fields near the coast; the world's largest land reserves and the largest rainforests on earth. In addition, the technology leaders in ethanol-driven engines and in offshore oil extraction are in Brazil, while there is a growing demand for ethanol and ethanol-based technologies worldwide.
The country also has stable domestic and foreign policies and conservative banking regulation which prevented the collapse of the financial system.
On top of all that, it is a very large domestic market with a growing middle class that enjoys increasing buying power.
Brazil will be the only BRIC country to grow faster in 2010 than it did before the crisis. According to the latest IMF forecast, GDP growth will reach 7.1% this year. There are some concerns, but Brazilian companies can leverage their strengths to become global leaders, if they use the right strategies to drive innovation and growth.
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-10-29-rbsc-pub-The_Brazilian_Decade.html
A new economic day is dawning
As the economic crisis draws to an end, companies in the industrialized world find themselves facing a twofold challenge. On the one hand, it is hoped that restructuring and cost-cutting programs will shore up their survival and growth in the short term. On the other hand, the corporate sector is itself a key driver of the long-term transformation of our economic and social system.
True, financial, economic and national crises are shaping the course of events right now. Not even profound economic turmoil does anything to change the fundamental challenges that confront today's world, however. Pollution of the environment, the population explosion, the growing scarcity of resources even as emerging economies demand more and more raw materials, the resultant rise in the prices of raw materials, dwindling biological diversity, the spread of urbanization and demographic change are all rapidly accelerating the transition in industry. The efficient use of energy and raw materials in particular is emerging as a pivotal issue in the battle to preserve prosperity and keep business locations competitive.
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-08-30-rbsc-pub-A_new_economic_day_is_dawning.html
Business Confidence Survey 2010
The European Union Chamber of Commerce Business Confidence Survey 2010 in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants surveyed over 500 European companies based in China between March and April of 2010.
The results – the most comprehensive and wideranging set of data yet gathered for this annual publication – show a European business community that remains optimistic about surging economic growth, but concerned about uncertainty in the business environment and ongoing regulatory unpredictability.
Survey respondents are generally optimistic about growth in their business sector – they have seen the Chinese market recover strongly and anticipate that this impressive performance will create opportunities for their own industries.
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-07-02-rbsc-pub-Business_Confidence_Survey_2010.html
Regarding procurement, less is more – sometimes
In recent months, companies around the world have been experiencing significant changes in how they manage their procurement. As a direct consequence of the global financial crisis, prices for materials and services fell across the board. Just a short time later, prices for raw materials shot up again, taking us all by surprise.
What are we to make of these developments? One thing is sure: the volatility of the past months is here to stay. Companies need to rethink how they manage their procurement activities. Now is the right time for them to turn the opportunities that have appeared in recent months into long-term benefits.
This edition of think:act CONTENT summarizes our view of how companies can best go about this and presents our recommendations for action.http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-07-06-rbsc-pub-think_act_CONTENT_Procurement.html
Restructuring study 2010 – International 2010
In spring 2010, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants conducted a study of trends in restructuring for the sixth time since 2001. We sent questionnaires to CEOs and managers at around 5,600 companies in various industries and regions.
The aim of the study was to find out how strongly and in which areas the crisis is still affecting companies in 2010 and what managers view as the opportunities in the upcoming recovery.
The major conclusion is, that the economic crisis has bottomed out and that companies around the world again focusing on growth strategies.
http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-06-18-rbsc-pub-Restructuring_study_2010.html
Crisis scenarios update
Please see the below link
http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Crisis_Scenario_update_20100205.pdf
The Chinese government's "Go West" strategy
Please see the below link
Edit http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/publications/2010-01-13-rbsc-pub-Go_west_strategy_China.html